The Global Macro Trader and Economics

By George Kovner

Global macro traders trade everything on earth. They are typically very active in stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies. Not only do they follow these markets but they follow them at least across the G-7 nations which multiplies the number of different markets and economies on their radar. Why do they do this? Primarily so that they can find the greatest amount of major dislocation possible. One great risk reward opportunity can make your year. Two or three can make you a fortune.

Now that you understand that the macro trader covers everything everywhere it should make sense as to why they must understand economics. The macro trader must have a solid grasp of global macroeconomics as well as country specific economics.

One good example of a country that is a huge part of global trade but has an economy very much different from the United States is that of Japan. In the early nineties Japan entered a long period of stagflation meaning that they didn't really grow at all for the next twenty years. Their inflation has run at under one percent the entire time and occasionally they have a deflationary quarter. And this after billions of stimulus over the years and the lowest interest rates on the globe.

If you had put money to work in Japan without understanding the macroeconomic situation you would have lost or best case broken even after years and years of work. Stocks do not always go up and the long term in Japans case has been 30 years so far. Yes, macroeconomics are important.

Another great macro trade using macro economics was buying commodities in 2002. At that point we had not only had the dot com bust but also several years of under development in our natural resources worldwide.

If you were tuned into the macro economy you would have noticed the BRIC nations picking up considerably and gone long. You would have bought Brazil, oil, base metals, etc. as the emerging markets expanded at a very fast pace for a while.

Many investors, especially of the value ilk stick their noses in the air when you tell them that the global economy matters. In 2008 they learned that the ways of the macro trader are very powerful and are worth following as most value funds lost at least forty percent and most lost sixty or more.

Global macroeconomics and macro trading obviously go hand in hand. But it is also worth it for any type of investor to follow the economy so that they are better aware of the different risks out there that can destroy their investments. Don't trade in a vacuum, instead climb up on the mountain and look over the entire investment landscape. - 23210

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